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UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control

Time-series deployments often need delayed feasible decisions, not only accurate forecasts. UC-Search is a trace-only retained-search layer for delayed constrained control: a frozen backbone emits forecasts or action scores, a hard-feasibility automaton rolls paths forward, and…

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2026
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arxiv.org/abs/2606.25274ARXIV-DEFAULT
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Abstract

Time-series deployments often need delayed feasible decisions, not only accurate forecasts. UC-Search is a trace-only retained-search layer for delayed constrained control: a frozen backbone emits forecasts or action scores, a hard-feasibility automaton rolls paths forward, and bounded search returns the first action of a feasible trajectory. The main claim is conditional: retained lookahead can improve delayed constrained decisions only when delayed feasible-set coupling, retained-prefix premises, and fail-closed release certificates hold. The promoted public endpoint is Phase128 certified M4 expanded40: validation selects Certificate-Constrained Retained Pareto Beam with λ=0.25, the held-out test has certificate/risk-active rates 1.0000/0.9642, and the weakest family remains above the unchanged 0.95 gate at 0.9516 on M4Weekly. The author-defined public 9-family suite remains an uncertified stress-test boundary. The paper reports a trace-only mechanism, one certified public endpoint, failed-route certificates, and deployment boundaries rather than a universal risk-control theorem.